December 2 — Today’s Bitcoin Market Update

This report provides a clear snapshot of Bitcoin’s market conditions as of December 2, 2025. I’m a long-term investor who dollar-cost averages small weekly amounts, and because I need to prepare for a major housing payment in 2028, I focus heavily on risk management rather than short-term speculation.

1. Bitcoin Price Overview

Bitcoin is currently trading around ₩127 million (KRW), down roughly 6% from yesterday. The short bounce we saw earlier in the week quickly lost steam and rolled over into a new pullback.

• The rebound lacked follow-through and faded almost immediately.
• Down-day volume was noticeably higher than up-day volume — a clear sign of weakness.
• Momentum shifted back to sellers after failing to hold above short-term levels.

Today’s takeaway isn’t the exact price; it’s the fact that the bounce didn’t stick.

2. Chart Analysis — “A Failed Bounce and Renewed Downside Pressure”

The daily chart shows a market still leaning bearish despite brief attempts to recover.

2-1. Moving Averages (5/10/20-Day)

• Price dropped back below the 5-day MA — short-term buyers are losing control.
• The 10-day and 20-day MAs continue sloping downward — the broader trend remains weak.
• Upper-wick candles near resistance indicate consistent selling pressure.

Bottom line: the bounce wasn’t strong enough to flip the trend.

2-2. Volume, MACD, and RSI

• Volume: Heavier volume on red candles shows stronger conviction from sellers.
• MACD: A potential bullish crossover failed — no trend reversal in sight.
• RSI: Hovering in the low 30s, near oversold but not signaling a confirmed reversal yet.

Taken together, the indicators point to a market still in a downtrend with occasional dead-cat bounces.

3. U.S. Macro & Federal Reserve Highlights

Bitcoin continues to trade as a macro-sensitive asset, reacting closely to liquidity conditions and Federal Reserve policy. Here’s what matters this week:

3-1. The Federal Reserve Has Officially Ended QT

• The Fed formally ended Quantitative Tightening on December 1.
• This opens the door to potential liquidity improvement.
• Generally supportive for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

3-2. Rate Cut Expectations Remain High — But Uncertain

• Institutions like BofA are projecting rate cuts in late 2025 or in 2026.
• But stronger-than-expected labor and inflation data complicate the narrative.
• The Fed itself is split — making the timing of cuts a major open question.

As a result, markets remain caught between optimism and uncertainty, which amplifies short-term volatility.

3-3. Bitcoin ETF Outflows

• November saw continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
• This contradicts bullish headlines and shows weakening spot demand.

4. Market Summary

Bearish Forces

• Failed bounce + renewed downside pressure
• Downward-trending moving averages
• Weak MACD and fading momentum
• ETF outflows and fragile investor sentiment
• Rate-cut timing uncertainty

Bullish Forces

• QT has ended, offering potential liquidity tailwinds
• Markets still expect the Fed to cut rates in the medium term
• RSI nearing oversold territory

In short: This isn’t a reversal zone. It’s a failed bounce followed by renewed selling pressure. Short-term uncertainty remains high, but medium-term liquidity expectations stay intact.

5. Personal Strategy Notes

Since I dollar-cost average into Bitcoin and need to manage capital for a home purchase in 2028, I avoid making aggressive moves during choppy market conditions.

• ✅ Continue small weekly DCA buys
• ✅ Avoid large additional purchases during uncertainty
• ✅ Wait for clarity from the December FOMC meeting
• ✅ Focus on long-term cost averaging, not bottom-picking

I plan to keep posting daily notes like this to stay disciplined and keep emotions out of my decision-making.

This is not financial advice — just a personal market journal and analysis.